Dear Mark: My brother-in-law is a self-proclaimed expert card counter, although I can’t see anything from the car he drives to the clothes he wears that proves he would have any success at it. He’s even thinking of doing it full time. He figures that since the counter always has an edge against the house, he’ll never lose. If that is true, then how come my Brother-in-law still drives a beat-up Ford? Sandy J.

Hey now, Sandy, I’m a proud Detroiter and I happily drive Ford products. Thank you very much! Moving right along…

Most card counters I know think they are the brightest color in the Crayon box. They all believe their crackerjack skills can beat the house at will, any time, any place. In reality, I’ve found more mediocre counters than good ones.

Here’s how the casino prevents keys to the front door from changing hands. 

First, you’ve got your pit bosses hassling counters by putting more decks on the game, burying more cards on the shuffle, stopping mid-entry shoe betting, having the dealer shuffle half way through the deck, and when all else fails, telling you to take hike.

That fourth countermeasure, premature shuffling, alone usually destroys the advantageous situation counters typically enjoy. The successful card counter, and there are some, combats early shuffling countermeasures by camouflaging his play and tries to remain undetected by pit personal. Otherwise, countermeasure five comes into play. He or she will be backed off the game.

If your brother-in-law can somehow remedy all the above, plus play proficiently, and the operative word here is “proficiently,” then yes, he theoretically can turn the tables in his favor with an ever-so-slight mathematical edge over the casino.

Ah, but there’s still one more enormous edge the casino has over a card counter. It's their virtually endless bankroll. The casino can sustain short-term losses that card counters cannot. (Here’s where I insert part of your question: “although I can’t see anything from the car he drives to the clothes he wears that proves he would have any success at it.”)

So, Sandy, is anyone truly making money on card counting? Sure. A very small, select group of counters who have created a cottage industry of seminars, tapes, books and newsletters on counting. For most counting experts, writing about playing is more lucrative than playing itself.

Final thought: Tell your brother-in-law not to quit his day job.

by Mark Pilarski